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If you’ve priced a laptop recently and felt like the numbers crept up while nobody was looking, you’re not imagining it, and it isn’t ordinary inflation. The industry has a nickname for what’s happening: RAMageddon. AI data centers are buying up the world’s supply of memory chips, the component inside every phone and computer you own, and the bill is landing on regular buyers through 2026.
I’ve gone through the analyst forecasts and current market data to answer the only question that actually matters for you: should you buy now, wait it out, or do something smarter than either. The honest answer differs by category, so let’s get the cause out of the way first, because it explains everything about the timing.
What’s Actually Happening, in Numbers
Only three companies make most of the world’s memory: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. All three are redirecting their factories toward high-bandwidth memory and server chips for AI data centers, because that’s where the money is; Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have collectively guided to around $650 billion in capital spending for 2026, up roughly two-thirds in a single year, and much of it competes directly with your next laptop for the same silicon. Micron has said it’s essentially sold out for 2026, and data centers are now estimated to absorb about 70% of global memory chip production.
The forecasts attached to that are blunt. Gartner projects combined DRAM and SSD prices surging around 130% by the end of 2026, pushing average PC prices up roughly 17% and smartphones about 13% versus 2025. Memory is climbing from 16% to a projected 23% of a PC’s total build cost, which wipes out manufacturers’ room to quietly absorb the hit. And one more Gartner call worth sitting with: the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment is expected to disappear entirely by 2028.
There is one fresh wrinkle as of this month: retail price rises have started to cool slightly, not because supply improved, but because consumers hit their affordability limit and stopped buying. Component costs underneath are still forecast to climb through at least the third quarter, and Lenovo has publicly called the situation the new normal. Nobody credible is forecasting meaningful relief before 2027.
The Sneakier Problem: Shrinkflation
Here’s the part that won’t show up on price tags. Rather than raising prices outright, many manufacturers are quietly cutting specs. A $600 laptop in 2026 can look identical to last year’s model while shipping with 8GB of RAM where its predecessor had 16GB. Analysts tracking smartphones report the same pattern: downgraded camera modules, displays, and audio components in midrange phones, some entry-level models slipping back to 4GB of RAM, and next year’s flagship phones expected to stay at 12GB rather than taking the usual step up.
This changes how you shop more than the price increases do. The spec sheet, especially the RAM line, now matters more than the sticker, because the sticker is where companies are hiding the damage.
Buy Now or Wait: The Honest Answer by Category
Laptops: if you genuinely need one within the next year, sooner beats later. Component costs rise through Q3 at minimum, relief is a 2027 story, and the spec-cutting means waiting risks paying the same for less machine. The one non-negotiable when you buy: 16GB of RAM. Modern browsers, video calls, and the AI features being baked into everything have made 8GB the false economy of 2026, and it’s exactly the spec being quietly cut.
Phones: flagships can wait, budget phones can’t. Memory is a smaller share of a flagship’s cost, so the pain there arrives mostly as stagnant specs rather than shocking prices. But the budget segment is where analysts expect real carnage: rising prices, degraded components, and models vanishing from lineups altogether. If a sub-₹20,000 or sub-$250 phone is in your plans, current-generation stock on shelves today is likely better value than its own successor will be.
PC builders and RAM upgrades: the worst-hit category, act accordingly. Loose memory sticks have seen the steepest rises of all, with industry figures expecting prices to double over the year. If your existing PC has a free RAM slot, upgrading it soon is one of the few moves that beats both waiting and buying new.
If your current device works: keeping it is the winning play. This is the quiet consensus even inside the industry’s own forecasts, which project people holding devices longer and shipments falling. A battery replacement, a RAM top-up, or a proper storage cleanup extends a machine for a fraction of today’s inflated replacement cost. This is also exactly why the Windows 10 security extension to 2027 matters: nobody with an older PC needs to panic-buy through the worst of a component shortage.
How to Shop Smart During the Squeeze
- Read the RAM line before the price tag. Same model name no longer means same machine. Compare this year’s configuration against last year’s before assuming a deal is a deal.
- The refurbished market is the value play of 2026. Analysts explicitly expect buyers shifting to refurbished and second-hand devices, and machines from two or three years ago carry pre-surge specs at pre-surge prices. A lightly used 16GB laptop beats a new 8GB one at the same money in almost every way that matters.
- Last-generation new stock is quietly gold. Retailers still selling previous-generation models at old prices are selling you memory configurations that no longer make economic sense to manufacture. When they’re gone, they’re gone.
- Don’t buy AI-branded hardware you didn’t want anyway. Rising costs have pushed “AI PC” premiums higher while the software case for most people remains thin. Pay for RAM and build quality, not stickers.
Quick Answers
- Why are laptops so expensive in 2026?
Memory prices have surged as AI data centers absorb chip supply, and memory is now nearly a quarter of a PC’s build cost. Analysts project average PC prices up around 17% versus 2025. - Will phone prices go up too?
Yes, with average selling prices forecast to rise between roughly 2% and 7% depending on the analyst, and budget phones bearing the worst of it through cut specs and discontinued models. - When will RAM prices go back down?
Suppliers and analysts point to 2027 at the earliest, since new factory capacity takes years and AI demand shows no sign of easing. Prices climbing through Q3 2026 is the current expectation. - Is it a bad time to build a PC?
For anything memory-heavy, yes, it’s the worst category right now. If you must, buy the RAM component first or shop the used market. - Should I just keep my current phone or laptop longer?
If it works, absolutely. Longer replacement cycles are what the entire market is now forecasting, and maintenance plus small upgrades beat inflated replacement prices.
The Bottom Line
The memory squeeze is real, measurable, and not ending this year: AI data centers outbid you for the chips, three manufacturers control the supply, and the costs flow downhill to your checkout page as higher prices or quietly weaker machines. The smart response isn’t panic-buying everything now. It’s precision: buy soon if you genuinely need a laptop or a budget phone, insist on 16GB and read spec sheets like contracts, raid the refurbished and last-gen markets while pre-surge inventory exists, and if your current device still does its job, congratulate it, clean it up, and let the worst of this pass you by.
